2011 Risen Star Preview
February 15, 2011 by admin
The $300,000 Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes from Fair Grounds has attracted a strong field of 10 sophomores hoping to continue on the path to the Kentucky Derby. The race is a prep for the $1 million Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 26. Last years winner, Discreetly Mine, currently stands at Lanes End for a $15,000 fee. I suspect this years winner will be much more celebrated than that son of Mineshaft. Let’s take a look at the field.
#1 Rogue Romance – I’m over the moon about this son of Smarty Jones. He is #2 on my Kentucky Derby Contenders list. Trainer Ken McPeek exudes confidence when speaking about him. The lightly raced colt owns a win in the Grade 3 Bourbon Stakes over the lawn at Keeneland along with a third place finish behind Uncle Mo in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. His closing style should work well thanks to the long Fair Grounds stretch. “The Rogue” as they call him at Runnymede Farm is bigger, stronger and faster than when he last raced. The works are strong and he is clearly the one to beat.
#2 Liondrive – Not sure what 2009 Belmont Stakes winning trainer Tim Ice is thinking with this one. If he is thinking about taking the 2011 Belmont Stakes later this year he had better find a faster horse. Would be a total shock in most eyes.
#3 Decisive Moment – This guy could offer excellent value. Two back he was second in the Grade 3 Delta Jackpot. He followed that effort up with a 3 1/2 length win in the $250k Jean Lafitte at Delta Downs. Look for him to be involved in the pace. I’m a bit concerned about his ability to stay on as the distances get longer, but he has proved he can go this distance in the past.
#4 Pants On Fire – This front runner just failed to hold on last out in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes. Trainer Kelly Breen and jockey Joe Bravo have been a deadly force in the past. Despite that I will pass. He is sure to gain plenty of attention at the windows, but I am unimpressed. I accept that he is a nice horse. However, you can’t use them all.
#5 Mucho Macho Man – The second choice on the morning line at 4-1 could also be involved in the pace. This can’t be good for him and the others as it looks like as many as 4 could try and make the front. He should be more relaxed with the blinkers off for the first time. The connections could be planning something new. His last two works were poor. I’m taking a wait and see approach. I will add that I love jockey Eibar Coa in this type of race though.
#6 Machen – I’m not sure what to make of this colt. His pedigree screams route as a son of Distorted Humor out of a More Than Ready mare. He easily won first out then returned to take a first level allowance going 1 mile and 70 yards. The works are very strong and he clearly has talent. This will be the acid test. Leave him off exotic tickets at your own peril.
#7 Santiva – Broke his maiden last out in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club for new trainer Eddie Kenneally. He was very close to the pace that day before hanging on for the win between horses. He is working up a storm and if he is ready he could earn his second trip to the winners circle. Mike Smith gets the calls for the first time. I love his pedigree and I think he will be one to watch in Kentucky Derby 2011 if he makes it there.
#8 Action Ready – Jockey Anna Napravnik is really tearing things up at Fair Grounds and she gets a shot at a big stakes win on this colt. In the past week she has 10 wins from 27 starts to go along with 1 second and 4 thirds. His work of 1:00 B for five furlongs over the track is quite impressive. I’d like to see him closer to the pace.
#9 Justin Phillip – Yet another big time colt for Zayat Stables. He was purchased for $400k as a yearling. This one was last seen fading in the Lecomte Stakes. Before that he took a first level allowance as the 1/2 favorite. The blinkers will come off and they were only on for his last race. Look for a stronger effort as he tries to rebound.
#10 Sorgho - Was ridden out to break his maiden at Sam Houston. That couldn’t have been much of a field. He ran strong first out on the grass to be third in a maiden at Fair Grounds. He could be any kind and the price will be huge. Eddie Martin gets the call for trainer William Bennett.
Our top selection to win the Risen Star Stakes is Rogue Romance. He is working well and the connections are expecting a big run. There will be plenty of pace for him to fire after. Look for Machen or Santiva to check in second.
Who do you like to win this race? Leave a comment and we can talk about it!
Hello,
Concerning the Liondrive colt. He finished on the hoofs of Soldat in the Grade 3 Pilgrim at Belmont Park. Soldat is one of th fastest 3 year olds on the trail. Liondrive broke his Maiden at Belmont in a Maiden 65k. Liondrive also has an Allowance / Optional win at the Fairgrounds. All 10 horses deserve to be in the race. I wish all of the Horses/Jocks a safe trip and the owners good luck in the Risen Star.
Tom Amenta
Hello, Tom. I see you are one of the owners of Liondrive. I will have to respectfully disagree about him belonging here. He was ineffective in a statebred race last out and 4 lengths back on the grass hardly constitutes being on the heels of Soldat. You have a good trainer in your corner though. Tim is a very nice guy and an even better trainer. I wish you guys the best of luck and I hope he runs huge. I really do. I just don’t see it.
Hello Ryan,
I give you a lot of credit for going college and operating a sports website. It takes a lot of courage to put yourself out to the public. I have no doubt that you will own racehorses and be a success as an attorney.
Tom Amenta
Thanks for the kind words. Do you own any other horses? I’d love to write about them or just Liondrive over on my main website @ gradedstakes.com if you want to share. Shoot me an email at ryan@gradedstakes.com if you’re interested.
Best of luck!
Hello,
very nice article. should be a very interesting race with an exciting group of three year olds. with the amount of racing I have watched this year and over my life I am very impressed with this field for saturdays risen star. Rogue Romance will probally go off as the favorite along with santiva the second choice. I like decisive moment in here as well, he ran a great race over at delta and will surely be played by the public. Machen could also represent some great value as well.
I also like action ready as well. anna has really made me a believer with her outstanding meet at the fair grounds. maybe even the best jock at the meet? I wish her the best of luck and see this one as a real possibility.
hopefully justin philip can turn things around and help reward his backers. blinkers should help this one again.
As far as the longshots in this race go… I would have to agree that liondrive was closing like a train on soldat at belmont in the g2 pilgrim. I watched the race and have kept a close eye on the participants that day including air suppose and soldat. he scored a nice allowance win over the track 2 back and just threw in the towel last race. he shows some real nice morning works and I believe that mr. ice knows what he is doing. although he is 50-1 on the morning, mr. ice shocked the world a few years back.
most wins in the field at 2.
Anna can certainly ride with the best of them. I think she moves horses up just by sitting on them. Sutherland may be the best female jock in the race though.
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